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Wichita Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Wichita, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Wichita is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in Sedgwick County (typically around 0).

  • Off-season: even with rain and warmth, populations are a fraction of summer's.
  • At a two-week average of 58°F, larvae develop slowly and the population stays small whatever the rain.
  • Tonight: a cool 55°F evening, light wind — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    3Low66°/39°dry
  2. Mon
    2Low67°/45°dry
  3. Tue
    4Low71°/44°dry
  4. Wed
    2Low68°/53°dry
  5. Thu
    1Low53°/40°dry
  6. Fri
    1Low49°/34°dry
  7. Sat
    1Low63°/41°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Wichita's mosquitoes do what they do

Wichita sits on the Arkansas River in the middle of the Great Plains, with hot summers, big storms and a Culex tarsalis population that makes south-central Kansas one of the state's higher West Nile risk regions. Sedgwick County monitors traps weekly through the season and posts the state's regional risk level.

  • Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers: floodplain pools and sandbars after storms.
  • Plains storms: inches of rain at a time fill ditches and low fields.
  • Culex tarsalis: the West Nile vector of the plains, breeding in flooded fields and ditches.
  • Wind and heat: Kansas wind grounds mosquitoes many evenings; the index weights it.

A typical year in Sedgwick County

What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Sedgwick County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 0
  4. AApril: 5
  5. MMay: 39
  6. JJune: 69
  7. JJuly: 86
  8. AAugust: 86
  9. SSeptember: 71
  10. OOctober: 20
  11. NNovember: 0
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Sedgwick County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.

WWater

Rain over the egg-to-adult window (2.5 in. between Oct 15 and Oct 28), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.

Role scales
Today 100%

TWarmth

The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.

Role gates
Today 30%

ATonight

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.

Role 0.5–1×
Today 33%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Wichita this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Role ±15%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Role ×
Today 15%

index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Wichita

When is mosquito season in Wichita?
May through September, peaking in July and August. The first freeze, usually October, ends it.
Why is West Nile a bigger deal in Kansas than in wetter states?
Culex tarsalis, the plains vector, is an efficient carrier and breeds in the flooded fields and ditches around Wichita. Dry, hot stretches that concentrate birds and mosquitoes at remaining water are the risky weeks.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Wichita right now?
Sedgwick County's page shows the state's regional risk level and the county's trap results each week. Follow that over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Wichita, scored by our documented model and compared with Sedgwick County's season-map climatology. Not a trap count.

Also covers Derby, Andover, Haysville, Maize, Park City, El Dorado, the Keeper of the Plains, Sedgwick County Park: the forecast point is central Wichita, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 4:28 PM local time.

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