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Tulsa Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Tulsa, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Tulsa is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in Tulsa County (typically around 3).

  • At a two-week average of 61°F, larvae develop slowly and the population stays small whatever the rain.
  • Tonight: a cool 54°F evening, light wind — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.
  • It's the edge of the season; warm weeks like this one keep it going past the calendar.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    10Low70°/36°dry
  2. Mon
    11Low72°/44°dry
  3. Tue
    14Low75°/44°dry
  4. Wed
    10Low71°/57°dry
  5. Thu
    5Low57°/42°dry
  6. Fri
    4Low49°/36°dry
  7. Sat
    5Low65°/41°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Tulsa's mosquitoes do what they do

Tulsa sits on the Arkansas River at the edge of Green Country, where Oklahoma's plains give way to the wooded hills of the Ozark foothills, and its summers are hot, humid and stormy. The Tulsa Health Department traps and tests from spring through fall and announces each season's first West Nile-positive mosquitoes, usually in June or July.

  • Arkansas River bottoms and Mingo Creek: floodwater habitat that fills with every spring storm.
  • Severe-weather rain: Tulsa's storms drop inches at a time, and the surge follows ten days later.
  • Humid summers: dusk humidity stays high from June through September.
  • Hard freeze: the season ends in late October or November.

A typical year in Tulsa County

What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Tulsa County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 0
  4. AApril: 12
  5. MMay: 49
  6. JJune: 76
  7. JJuly: 86
  8. AAugust: 86
  9. SSeptember: 79
  10. OOctober: 45
  11. NNovember: 3
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Tulsa County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.

WWater

Rain over the egg-to-adult window (0.9 in. between Oct 16 and Oct 29), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.

Role scales
Today 53%

TWarmth

The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.

Role gates
Today 40%

ATonight

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.

Role 0.5–1×
Today 26%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Tulsa this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Role ±15%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Role ×
Today 60%

index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Tulsa

When is mosquito season in Tulsa?
May through October, peaking in June and again in late summer. The Health Department traps through that window; the first freeze ends it.
Why are the mosquitoes worse after a storm in Tulsa?
Green Country storms fill creek bottoms and yards at once, and at summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in 7 to 10 days. The index looks back at exactly that window.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Tulsa?
Yes. Tulsa County detects West Nile in mosquito pools most summers and records human cases in many years. The Health Department's announcements are authoritative; follow them over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Tulsa, scored by our documented model and compared with Tulsa County's season-map climatology. Not a trap count.

Also covers Broken Arrow, Owasso, Jenks, Bixby, Sand Springs, Sapulpa, the Gathering Place, Turkey Mountain: the forecast point is central Tulsa, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 4:28 PM local time.

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