Skip to content

Tampa Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Tampa, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Severe

Severe mosquito activity in Tampa today and easing through the week. Expect to be bitten within minutes outdoors at dusk.

Swarming conditions. Expect bites within a minute or two outside at dusk.

Worse than a typical November in Hillsborough County (usually around 63).

  • 2.3 in. of rain Oct 24–Oct 31 has had time to hatch: this is the surge from that storm.
  • Two weeks averaging 75°F is ideal breeding weather: egg to biting adult in about a week.
  • Tonight: a 67°F evening, light wind — good flying weather for mosquitoes.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    93Severe81°/61°dry
  2. Mon
    92Severe78°/60°dry
  3. Tue
    92Severe82°/63°dry
  4. Wed
    92Severe81°/71°dry
  5. Thu
    91Severe80°/71°0.1 in
  6. Fri
    80V·High72°/58°dry
  7. Sat
    73V·High62°/51°dry

Protect tonight

Treat the outdoors like a swarm: cover up and use a full-strength repellent.

  1. 25–30% DEET or 20% picaridin on every bit of exposed skin, plus permethrin-treated clothing for anything longer than a quick trip outside.
  2. Keep kids and pets in around dusk and dawn; schedule outdoor time for midday when it's hottest and driest.
  3. If your health department has an active West Nile advisory for your ZIP, follow it over anything on this page.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Tampa's mosquitoes do what they do

Tampa Bay's summer is a daily thunderstorm over a city of cypress heads, retention ponds and canal-front yards, and Hillsborough County Mosquito Management treats by air through the season. In the fall of 2026 the county declared a local state of emergency over locally acquired dengue, a reminder that the container-breeding Aedes here carry more than itching.

  • Daily summer storms: breeding water is renewed every afternoon from June through September.
  • Retention ponds and ditches: Florida's stormwater design creates permanent Culex habitat in every subdivision.
  • Aedes aegypti and albopictus: container breeders in the urban core; the 2026 dengue response targeted them.
  • Salt marsh: the bay shore and the Alafia and Little Manatee estuaries add salt-marsh broods after high tides.

A typical year in Hillsborough County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 32
  2. FFebruary: 33
  3. MMarch: 46
  4. AApril: 58
  5. MMay: 74
  6. JJune: 87
  7. JJuly: 94
  8. AAugust: 97
  9. SSeptember: 100
  10. OOctober: 92
  11. NNovember: 63
  12. DDecember: 39

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Hillsborough County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (2.4 in. between Oct 24 and Oct 31). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 100%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 90%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 100%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Tampa this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Weight 10%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 100%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Tampa

When is mosquito season in Tampa?
Year-round with a peak from June through October, when daily storms keep breeding water topped up. A dry, cool January is the only real lull.
Why are mosquitoes bad in Tampa even when it hasn't rained?
Retention ponds, ditches and irrigation keep water standing year-round, and Aedes breed in containers that irrigation fills. The index never drops breeding pressure to zero here for exactly that reason.
Is dengue a risk in Tampa?
It has been: Hillsborough County reported locally acquired dengue in 2026 and ran an emergency response. The Florida Department of Health's advisories, linked above, are authoritative and override this page.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for central Tampa, scored by our documented model. A model of nuisance-biting conditions, not a trap count.

Also covers St. Petersburg, Brandon, Clearwater, Riverview, Wesley Chapel, Temple Terrace, Bayshore Boulevard, Hillsborough River State Park: the forecast point is central Tampa, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 1:38 PM local time.

Related guides