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Tallahassee Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Tallahassee, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Tallahassee is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in Leon County (typically around 18).

  • Only 0.0 in. of rain Oct 22–Oct 31, so few new breeding sites; what's biting is coming from irrigation, pools and creeks.
  • It's the edge of the season; warm weeks like this one keep it going past the calendar.
  • A two-week average of 70°F keeps populations growing, just more slowly than midsummer.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    14Low75°/48°dry
  2. Mon
    13Low75°/55°dry
  3. Tue
    15Low78°/52°dry
  4. Wed
    16Low77°/61°dry
  5. Thu
    20Low75°/57°dry
  6. Fri
    10Low59°/42°dry
  7. Sat
    9Low58°/37°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Tallahassee's mosquitoes do what they do

Tallahassee is the Panhandle's canopy city, built among live oaks and the lakes and sinkholes of the Red Hills, with some of the heaviest summer rain in Florida. Leon County Mosquito Control traps and sprays across the county, and the health department issued a mosquito-borne illness advisory in the fall of 2025 after West Nile activity.

  • Lakes and sinkholes: Lake Jackson, Lake Lafayette and the sinkhole wetlands are permanent habitat.
  • Canopy roads: shade and leaf litter favor the daytime-biting Asian tiger mosquito.
  • Heavy summer rain: among the wettest cities in Florida from June to September.
  • Shorter season than the peninsula: real winter lull from December to February.

A typical year in Leon County

What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Leon County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.

  1. JJanuary: 1
  2. FFebruary: 1
  3. MMarch: 14
  4. AApril: 45
  5. MMay: 68
  6. JJune: 85
  7. JJuly: 86
  8. AAugust: 86
  9. SSeptember: 86
  10. OOctober: 63
  11. NNovember: 18
  12. DDecember: 1

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Leon County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.

WWater

Rain over the egg-to-adult window (0.0 in. between Oct 22 and Oct 31), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.

Role scales
Today 0%

TWarmth

The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.

Role gates
Today 72%

ATonight

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.

Role 0.5–1×
Today 91%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Tallahassee this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Role ±15%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Role ×
Today 60%

index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Tallahassee

When is mosquito season in Tallahassee?
April through October, peaking from June through September. Unlike South Florida, Tallahassee gets a genuine winter lull.
Why are the canopy neighborhoods so bad in the daytime?
The Asian tiger mosquito breeds in leaf-filled gutters and shaded containers and bites by day; Tallahassee's live-oak canopy is ideal for it. Cleaning gutters matters more than spraying.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Tallahassee?
Yes. Leon County has recorded West Nile and EEE activity in most years and the health department issued an advisory in 2025. Follow those advisories over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Tallahassee, scored by our documented model and compared with Leon County's climate normals. Not a trap count.

Also covers Thomasville, Crawfordville, Quincy, Havana, Killearn, Midtown, Lake Ella, Cascades Park: the forecast point is central Tallahassee, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 5:28 PM local time.

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