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Pensacola Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Pensacola, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Pensacola is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in Escambia County (typically around 28).

  • Only 0.0 in. of rain Oct 22–Oct 30, so few new breeding sites; what's biting is coming from irrigation, pools and creeks.
  • Tonight: a cool 61°F evening, light wind — average conditions for biting.
  • A two-week average of 69°F keeps populations growing, just more slowly than midsummer.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    20Low75°/47°dry
  2. Mon
    17Low75°/53°dry
  3. Tue
    20Low79°/54°dry
  4. Wed
    24Mod.80°/65°dry
  5. Thu
    18Low76°/55°dry
  6. Fri
    11Low60°/45°dry
  7. Sat
    11Low62°/40°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Pensacola's mosquitoes do what they do

Pensacola sits between Escambia Bay and the Gulf with bayous — Texar, Chico, Grande — cutting into every neighborhood, and the Panhandle's heavy rain keeps them full. Escambia County Mosquito Control fogs by neighborhood through the season and posts each operation; the health department issues advisories when West Nile or EEE is found.

  • Bayous: Bayou Texar and Bayou Chico are tidal, shaded and surrounded by yards, ideal Culex and Aedes habitat.
  • Panhandle rain: among the wettest places in the country, with summer storms nearly daily.
  • Salt marsh: the bay shores and Santa Rosa Island produce salt-marsh broods on spring tides.
  • Long season: a real but short winter lull in January and February.

A typical year in Escambia County

What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Escambia County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 1
  3. MMarch: 14
  4. AApril: 45
  5. MMay: 68
  6. JJune: 86
  7. JJuly: 86
  8. AAugust: 86
  9. SSeptember: 86
  10. OOctober: 63
  11. NNovember: 28
  12. DDecember: 6

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Escambia County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.

WWater

Rain over the egg-to-adult window (0.0 in. between Oct 22 and Oct 30), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.

Role scales
Today 0%

TWarmth

The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.

Role gates
Today 69%

ATonight

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.

Role 0.5–1×
Today 65%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Pensacola this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Role ±15%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Role ×
Today 100%

index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Pensacola

When is mosquito season in Pensacola?
March through November, peaking from June through September. January and February are the lull.
Why are the bayou neighborhoods so bad for mosquitoes?
Bayou Texar and Bayou Chico are tidal and shaded, with stormwater outfalls and yards right at the water. They hold humidity at dusk and run well above the citywide index.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Pensacola?
Yes. Escambia County detects West Nile and EEE in most years and the health department issues advisories. Follow those over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Pensacola, scored by our documented model and compared with Escambia County's season-map climatology. Not a trap count.

Also covers Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Perdido Key, Bayou Texar, the Palafox district: the forecast point is central Pensacola, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 4:28 PM local time.

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