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Orlando Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Orlando, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Severe

Severe mosquito activity in Orlando today and easing through the week. Expect to be bitten within minutes outdoors at dusk.

Swarming conditions. Expect bites within a minute or two outside at dusk.

Worse than a typical November in Orange County (usually around 66).

  • 3.8 in. of rain Oct 24–Oct 31 has had time to hatch: this is the surge from that storm.
  • Tonight: a 67°F evening, light wind — good flying weather for mosquitoes.
  • A two-week average of 75°F keeps populations growing, just more slowly than midsummer.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    92Severe85°/56°dry
  2. Mon
    92Severe81°/59°dry
  3. Tue
    92Severe84°/61°dry
  4. Wed
    92Severe83°/70°0.3 in
  5. Thu
    92Severe82°/68°0.1 in
  6. Fri
    75V·High72°/55°dry
  7. Sat
    70V·High61°/46°dry

Protect tonight

Treat the outdoors like a swarm: cover up and use a full-strength repellent.

  1. 25–30% DEET or 20% picaridin on every bit of exposed skin, plus permethrin-treated clothing for anything longer than a quick trip outside.
  2. Keep kids and pets in around dusk and dawn; schedule outdoor time for midday when it's hottest and driest.
  3. If your health department has an active West Nile advisory for your ZIP, follow it over anything on this page.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Orlando's mosquitoes do what they do

Orlando is built around hundreds of lakes and the wetlands between them, and its summer is the same daily-thunderstorm pattern as the rest of peninsular Florida. Orange County Mosquito Control runs trap surveillance and sentinel chicken flocks that detect West Nile and Eastern equine encephalitis before people get sick.

  • Lakes and wetlands: Orange County's lake chains and cypress swamps are permanent floodwater and Culex habitat.
  • Daily summer storms: June through September rain renews container and ditch water almost every afternoon.
  • Theme-park and tourist corridor: dusk is prime time for both mosquitoes and visitors, so the evening activity factor matters.
  • EEE and West Nile: sentinel chickens convert most summers; advisories follow.

A typical year in Orange County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 31
  2. FFebruary: 33
  3. MMarch: 44
  4. AApril: 58
  5. MMay: 74
  6. JJune: 87
  7. JJuly: 94
  8. AAugust: 97
  9. SSeptember: 100
  10. OOctober: 92
  11. NNovember: 66
  12. DDecember: 39

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Orange County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (3.8 in. between Oct 24 and Oct 31). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 100%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 90%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 100%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Orlando this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Weight 10%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 100%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Orlando

When is mosquito season in Orlando?
Year-round, peaking from June through October with the summer rains. The driest, coolest weeks of January and February are the lull.
Why are mosquitoes bad around Orlando's lakes?
Lake margins and the cypress wetlands between lakes are permanent breeding habitat, and summer storms raise water levels into grass that floodwater species need. The shoreline parks are the worst spots at dusk.
Is West Nile or EEE a risk in Orlando?
Both are detected in most years through the county's sentinel chickens, and the health department issues advisories when they are. Follow those over the Bite Index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for central Orlando, scored by our documented model and compared with Orange County's season-map climatology. A model, not a trap count.

Also covers Kissimmee, Winter Park, Sanford, Lake Buena Vista, Apopka, Oviedo, Lake Eola, Wekiwa Springs: the forecast point is central Orlando, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 1:38 PM local time.

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