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Oklahoma City Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Oklahoma City, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Moderate

Moderate mosquito activity in Oklahoma City today: expect some bites at dusk.

Some bites at dusk and dawn, mostly near creeks, gardens and shade.

Worse than a typical November in Oklahoma County (usually around 0).

  • 2.0 in. of rain Oct 16–Oct 29 has had time to hatch: this is the surge from that storm.
  • Tonight: a cool 56°F evening, light wind — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.
  • At a two-week average of 61°F, larvae develop slowly and numbers are easing.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    39Mod.69°/39°dry
  2. Mon
    40Mod.71°/43°dry
  3. Tue
    45High74°/52°dry
  4. Wed
    36Mod.69°/53°dry
  5. Thu
    27Mod.57°/41°dry
  6. Fri
    27Mod.50°/34°dry
  7. Sat
    30Mod.68°/40°dry

Protect tonight

Worth repellent if you'll be outside at dusk or dawn.

  1. A botanical or 10% picaridin lotion covers a patio evening; reapply after about two hours.
  2. A fan on the patio does real work: mosquitoes are weak fliers and avoid moving air.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Oklahoma City's mosquitoes do what they do

Oklahoma City is wide, windy and prone to both drought and downpour, so its mosquito season swings hard with the rain. The City-County Health Department traps and tests through the summer and reports West Nile-positive samples; Oklahoma's dominant vector, Culex tarsalis, thrives in the irrigated and flooded edges of the metro.

  • Boom-and-bust rain: a wet May produces a June surge; a dry July suppresses it; September storms bring it back.
  • Wind: Oklahoma's wind grounds mosquitoes more evenings than most places, and the index weights it.
  • Culex tarsalis: the West Nile vector breeds in flooded fields, ditches and the North Canadian River bottoms.
  • Hard freeze: the season ends abruptly in late October or November.

A typical year in Oklahoma County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 9
  4. AApril: 38
  5. MMay: 73
  6. JJune: 98
  7. JJuly: 95
  8. AAugust: 88
  9. SSeptember: 78
  10. OOctober: 54
  11. NNovember: 0
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Oklahoma County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (2.0 in. between Oct 16 and Oct 29). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 100%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 40%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 39%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Oklahoma City this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Weight 10%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 60%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Oklahoma City

When is mosquito season in Oklahoma City?
May through October, peaking in June and again in September. Oklahoma's first freeze, usually late October, ends it.
Why are some summers so much worse than others in OKC?
Rain. A wet spring fills every ditch and low field with floodwater-mosquito habitat; a dry one doesn't. The index follows the actual rainfall of the past two weeks, so it captures that year-to-year swing.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Oklahoma City?
Yes. Oklahoma County reports positive mosquito samples most summers and human cases in many years. The Health Department's announcements are authoritative; follow them over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Oklahoma City, scored by our documented model. A model of conditions, not a trap count.

Also covers Norman, Edmond, Moore, Midwest City, Yukon, Mustang, Lake Hefner, the Oklahoma River: the forecast point is central Oklahoma City, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 12:38 PM local time.

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