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New York Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in New York, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in New York is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in New York County.

  • Off-season: even with rain and warmth, populations are a fraction of summer's.
  • Tonight: a cool 52°F evening, a breeze — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.
  • 0.8 in. of rain Oct 14–Oct 28 is now producing adults (cool weather slowed the hatch, so the window is longer than usual).

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    6Low61°/47°dry
  2. Mon
    4Low55°/43°dry
  3. Tue
    6Low61°/42°dry
  4. Wed
    5Low61°/50°dry
  5. Thu
    4Low60°/54°0.6 in
  6. Fri
    3Low56°/49°1.0 in
  7. Sat
    3Low49°/43°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why New York's mosquitoes do what they do

New York's mosquitoes live in the marshes of Jamaica Bay and Pelham Bay, the catch basins of every borough, and the containers of a million backyards and rooftops. The Health Department traps across the city, publishes weekly West Nile activity maps by ZIP, and sprays and larvicides by neighborhood; it detected an increase in infected mosquitoes across the city in 2026.

  • Salt marsh: Jamaica Bay, Pelham Bay and the Staten Island shore produce salt-marsh broods after spring tides.
  • Catch basins: the city larvicides tens of thousands of storm drains each summer against the Culex that carry West Nile.
  • Backyards and rooftops: the Asian tiger mosquito breeds in containers in the outer boroughs; Manhattan's dense core has fewer.
  • Short season: June through September; the index is zero from November to April.

A typical year in New York County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 0
  4. AApril: 10
  5. MMay: 38
  6. JJune: 64
  7. JJuly: 82
  8. AAugust: 87
  9. SSeptember: 73
  10. OOctober: 43
  11. NNovember: 0
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. New York County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (0.8 in. between Oct 14 and Oct 28). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 45%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 27%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 11%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For New York this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Weight 10%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 15%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in New York

When is mosquito season in New York City?
June through September, peaking in July and August. The Health Department's trapping runs roughly May to October; frost ends the season.
Which boroughs are worst for mosquitoes?
Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx, where salt marsh, parkland and backyards combine. Manhattan's dense core has the fewest; its parks are the exception at dusk.
Is West Nile virus a risk in New York City?
Yes. The Health Department finds West Nile-positive pools every summer, publishes weekly activity maps by ZIP, and records human cases most years. Its maps and notices are authoritative; follow them over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for lower Manhattan, scored by our documented model and compared with New York County's season-map climatology. The index is a citywide average; the outer boroughs run above it.

Also covers Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Staten Island, Jersey City, Hoboken, Central Park, Prospect Park: the forecast point is central New York, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 1:38 PM local time.

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