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Nashville Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Nashville, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Nashville is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

Worse than a typical November in Davidson County (usually around 0).

  • Tonight: a cool 49°F evening, light wind — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.
  • Only 0.2 in. of rain Oct 15–Oct 29, so few new breeding sites; what's biting is coming from irrigation, pools and creeks.
  • At a two-week average of 60°F, larvae develop slowly and numbers are easing.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    13Low63°/34°dry
  2. Mon
    14Low69°/39°dry
  3. Tue
    18Low64°/42°dry
  4. Wed
    21Mod.66°/50°0.1 in
  5. Thu
    16Low58°/43°0.1 in
  6. Fri
    0Low43°/39°dry
  7. Sat
    0Low50°/35°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Nashville's mosquitoes do what they do

Nashville's hills and hollows drain to the Cumberland River through dozens of creeks, and its humid summers bring a reliable Culex season. Metro Public Health's Pest Management team traps across Davidson County and announces West Nile detections by neighborhood; in 2026 it found the virus by the start of July.

  • Creeks and hollows: Mill Creek, Richland Creek and Browns Creek leave shaded pools after storms.
  • Humid summers: June through August dusk conditions are ideal for flight.
  • Catch basins: the urban Culex that carry West Nile breed in storm drains; Metro larvicides them.
  • Real winter: frosts from late October end the season.

A typical year in Davidson County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 0
  4. AApril: 31
  5. MMay: 57
  6. JJune: 81
  7. JJuly: 90
  8. AAugust: 93
  9. SSeptember: 84
  10. OOctober: 56
  11. NNovember: 0
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Davidson County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (0.2 in. between Oct 15 and Oct 29). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 0%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 35%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 0%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Nashville this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Weight 10%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 60%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Nashville

When is mosquito season in Nashville?
May through October, peaking in July and August. Metro's Pest Management team traps through that window; frost ends it.
Why are the mosquitoes worse after a storm in Nashville?
Storm water pools in creek bottoms and catch basins, and at summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in 7 to 10 days. The Bite Index looks back at exactly that window.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Nashville?
Yes. Metro Public Health detects West Nile in local mosquitoes most summers and names the neighborhoods. Follow those announcements over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for downtown Nashville, scored by our documented model and compared with Davidson County's season-map climatology. Not a trap count.

Also covers Franklin, Brentwood, Murfreesboro, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, Madison, Percy Warner Park, Shelby Bottoms: the forecast point is central Nashville, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 12:38 PM local time.

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