Mosquito forecast
Miami Mosquito Forecast
Today's mosquito activity in Miami, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.Today's mosquito activity in Miami on a 0–100 Bite Index, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Built from the rain and temperature that drive Miami-Dade County's trap counts; updated hourly.
Bite Index · Sunday, November 8
Severe
Severe mosquito activity in Miami today. Expect to be bitten within minutes outdoors at dusk.
Swarming conditions. Expect bites within a minute or two outside at dusk.
Worse than a typical November in Miami-Dade County (usually around 75).
- 10.8 in. of rain Oct 25–Nov 1 has had time to hatch: this is the surge from that storm.
- Two weeks averaging 78°F is ideal breeding weather: egg to biting adult in about a week.
- Tonight: a 75°F evening, light wind, rain around dusk — good flying weather for mosquitoes.
The week ahead
Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.
- Today91SevereSevere82°/72°0.3 in
- Mon94SevereSevere80°/70°dry
- Tue94SevereSevere82°/73°dry
- Wed95SevereSevere81°/79°0.2 in
- Thu90SevereSevere85°/76°0.2 in
- Fri86SevereSevere78°/66°dry
- Sat83SevereSevere68°/60°dry
Protect tonight
Treat the outdoors like a swarm: cover up and use a full-strength repellent.
- 25–30% DEET or 20% picaridin on every bit of exposed skin, plus permethrin-treated clothing for anything longer than a quick trip outside.
- Keep kids and pets in around dusk and dawn; schedule outdoor time for midday when it's hottest and driest.
- If your health department has an active West Nile advisory for your ZIP, follow it over anything on this page.
Why Miami's mosquitoes do what they do
Miami is where the United States meets the tropics: Aedes aegypti breeds in every bromeliad and flowerpot, locally acquired dengue is reported most years, and the afternoon thunderstorms of the wet season keep containers full from May to October. Miami-Dade Mosquito Control inspects and treats by neighborhood and the health department issues mosquito-borne illness alerts when local transmission is found.
- Container breeders: Aedes aegypti and albopictus thrive in bromeliads, drains, pots and gutters across the dense urban core, so a dry spell barely helps.
- Wet season: near-daily storms from late May through October mean breeding water is continuously renewed.
- Dengue: locally acquired cases occur most years, and the health department's alerts should override anything on this page.
- Everglades edge: the western suburbs get floodwater and salt-marsh species on top of the urban ones.
A typical year in Miami-Dade County
The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.
- JJanuary: 38
- FFebruary: 39
- MMarch: 48
- AApril: 64
- MMay: 76
- JJune: 87
- JJuly: 94
- AAugust: 97
- SSeptember: 100
- OOctober: 98
- NNovember: 75
- DDecember: 47
Local surveillance and West Nile virus
The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Miami-Dade County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control
Trap surveillance, Aedes aegypti control, inspection requests, and treatment notices by neighborhood.
- Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade — Mosquito-borne illness alerts
Dengue, West Nile and other mosquito-borne illness advisories for the county.
How the Bite Index is scored
The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.
BBreeding pressure
Rain 7–14 days ago (10.8 in. between Oct 25 and Nov 1). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.
DDevelopment
The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.
ATonight's activity
Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.
GGround truth
A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Miami this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.
SSeason gate
A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.
index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))
Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).
Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Miami
- When is mosquito season in Miami?
- All year, peaking with the wet season from late May through October. Even the dry season has enough irrigation and container water for Aedes to keep biting in the afternoon shade.
- Why do I get bitten in the daytime in Miami?
- Aedes aegypti, the dominant urban species, is a daytime biter that lives within a few hundred feet of where it hatched — usually your own yard or building. Dusk Culex are the night shift. The index covers both, but midday Aedes bites are a Miami specialty.
- Is dengue a risk in Miami?
- Yes. Locally acquired dengue is reported in Miami-Dade most years, and the Florida Department of Health issues a mosquito-borne illness alert when it is. Follow those alerts over the Bite Index.
- Where does this forecast's data come from?
- Open-Meteo weather for central Miami, scored by our documented model and compared with Miami-Dade's season-map climatology. Not a trap count; the county and health department are the authorities on disease.
Also covers Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Hialeah, Kendall, Homestead, Doral, Key Biscayne, the Everglades: the forecast point is central Miami, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 1:38 PM local time.