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Lubbock Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Lubbock, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

Low

Mosquito activity in Lubbock is low today.

Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.

About normal for November in Lubbock County (typically around 0).

  • Off-season: even with rain and warmth, populations are a fraction of summer's.
  • At a two-week average of 57°F, larvae develop slowly and the population stays small whatever the rain.
  • Tonight: a cool 53°F evening, light wind — poor flying weather, so fewer bites than the population alone would suggest.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    1Low66°/45°dry
  2. Mon
    2Low69°/41°dry
  3. Tue
    2Low70°/48°dry
  4. Wed
    2Low70°/54°dry
  5. Thu
    1Low68°/52°dry
  6. Fri
    2Low65°/48°dry
  7. Sat
    2Low74°/52°dry

Protect tonight

You can probably skip repellent tonight.

  1. If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
  2. Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Lubbock's mosquitoes do what they do

Lubbock is the South Plains: flat, high, dry and dotted with playa lakes that fill with every thunderstorm and breed mosquitoes a week later. The city's Vector Control program larvicides the playas and traps across town, and West Nile arrived early and strong in 2026, with the first human case confirmed in early September.

  • Playa lakes: the shallow basins across the city fill with storm runoff and are the main breeding sites.
  • Plains storms: inches of rain at a time, then weeks of dry wind.
  • Culex tarsalis: the plains West Nile vector thrives in playas and irrigated fields.
  • Wind and dryness: most evenings are too windy or too dry for much biting; calm humid nights after rain are the exception.

A typical year in Lubbock County

What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Lubbock County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 0
  3. MMarch: 0
  4. AApril: 6
  5. MMay: 43
  6. JJune: 74
  7. JJuly: 86
  8. AAugust: 81
  9. SSeptember: 68
  10. OOctober: 19
  11. NNovember: 0
  12. DDecember: 0

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Lubbock County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.

WWater

Rain over the egg-to-adult window (0.8 in. between Oct 15 and Oct 28), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.

Role scales
Today 42%

TWarmth

The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.

Role gates
Today 27%

ATonight

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.

Role 0.5–1×
Today 17%

GGround truth

A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Lubbock this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.

Role ±15%
Today neutral

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Role ×
Today 15%

index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Lubbock

When is mosquito season in Lubbock?
May through September, peaking after summer storms. The first freeze, usually late October, ends it.
Why do the mosquitoes come in waves in Lubbock?
Each storm fills the playa lakes, and at summer temperatures a week later the adults emerge; dry windy weeks in between suppress them. The index follows exactly that rhythm.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Lubbock?
Yes, and 2026 was an early, active year with the first human case in September. Vector Control's announcements are authoritative; follow them over the index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Open-Meteo weather for central Lubbock, scored by our documented model and compared with Lubbock County's climate normals. Playa levels aren't in the weather data.

Also covers Wolfforth, Shallowater, Slaton, Idalou, Levelland, Texas Tech, Mackenzie Park, Buffalo Springs Lake: the forecast point is central Lubbock, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 4:28 PM local time.

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