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Austin Mosquito Forecast

Today's mosquito activity in Austin, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.

Bite Index · Sunday, November 8

High

High mosquito activity in Austin today and climbing toward severe by Nov 11. Cover up or use repellent after 6 pm.

Bites within a few minutes outdoors at dusk. Repellent or long sleeves pay off.

About normal for November in Travis County.

  • Only 0.5 in. of rain Oct 22–Oct 30, so few new breeding sites; what's biting is coming from irrigation, pools and creeks.
  • Tonight: a cool 62°F evening, light wind — good flying weather for mosquitoes.
  • A two-week average of 69°F keeps populations growing, just more slowly than midsummer.

The week ahead

Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.

  1. Today
    59High64°/59°0.5 in
  2. Mon
    61V·High67°/60°dry
  3. Tue
    71V·High73°/61°dry
  4. Wed
    81Severe78°/62°dry
  5. Thu
    80V·High76°/62°dry
  6. Fri
    73V·High66°/55°dry
  7. Sat
    81Severe69°/52°dry

Protect tonight

Use repellent for any time outside after about 6 pm.

  1. 20% picaridin or 20–30% DEET for the evening; follow the label's reapplication window.
  2. Long sleeves and pants in light colors cut bites roughly in half on their own.
  3. Skip the yard work at dusk: the hour around sunset is the heaviest biting of the day.
Which repellent, and how much: DEET vs picaridinBest natural repellents

Why Austin's mosquitoes do what they do

Austin sits where the Hill Country's creeks meet the Blackland Prairie, and its mosquitoes follow the rain: a wet week in May or September turns into a biting week ten days later. Austin Public Health runs about 30 traps a week from May through November and tests pooled mosquitoes for West Nile virus; this page turns the weather that drives those trap counts into a daily number.

  • Flash-flood rain: Austin's big rains come in bursts that fill every container, gutter and low spot at once.
  • Long warm shoulder seasons: nights stay above 60°F well into November, so the season runs later than the calendar suggests.
  • Creeks and greenbelts: Barton, Shoal, Waller and Walnut Creeks leave standing pools after storms.
  • West Nile is endemic: Travis County records positive mosquito pools most summers (41 pools and five human cases in 2025).

A typical year in Travis County

The long-run mosquito index by month from our season map (NOAA climate normals plus effort-corrected sightings). Today's Bite Index is the live version of this; the month you're in is marked.

  1. JJanuary: 0
  2. FFebruary: 21
  3. MMarch: 34
  4. AApril: 59
  5. MMay: 85
  6. JJune: 100
  7. JJuly: 95
  8. AAugust: 79
  9. SSeptember: 92
  10. OOctober: 79
  11. NNovember: 57
  12. DDecember: 34

Local surveillance and West Nile virus

The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Travis County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.

25 standing-water and flooding reports to Austin 3-1-1 in the last 7 days (recent weekly average 25). Standing-water complaints are the earliest sign of new breeding sites; they feed the ground-truth factor below.

How the Bite Index is scored

The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Four weather factors are combined on a 0–100 scale, then scaled by the season. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. It uses the same temperature curve and rain logic as our county-level mosquito season map, which has been validated against effort-corrected sighting data across 41 states.

BBreeding pressure

Rain 7–14 days ago (0.5 in. between Oct 22 and Oct 30). Eggs need water to hatch, and at summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it as shallow water evaporates.

Weight 40%
Today 22%

DDevelopment

The trailing two-week average temperature, on the same curve as our national season map: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat.

Weight 25%
Today 69%

ATonight's activity

Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset.

Weight 25%
Today 81%

GGround truth

Fed by standing-water and flooding reports to Austin 3-1-1 (25 this week vs. a 25 weekly average) and the health department’s positive West Nile pools.

Weight 10%
Today +30%

SSeason gate

A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.

Weight ×
Today 100%

index = 100 × S × (0.40 × (0.2 + 0.8·B) + 0.25 × D + 0.25 × A + 0.10 × (0.5 + 0.5·G))

Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).

Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Austin

When is mosquito season in Austin?
Austin Public Health considers May through November peak season, with trapping and testing running through that window. Mosquitoes are present year-round in Central Texas; they are simply too slow and too few to notice once nights drop below about 50°F.
Why are the mosquitoes so bad after it rains?
Eggs laid in dry containers hatch when water reaches them, and at Austin's summer temperatures the egg-to-biting-adult cycle takes roughly 7–10 days. So a storm today is a swarm late next week. The Bite Index looks back at exactly that window.
Is West Nile virus a risk in Austin?
Yes. Travis County records West Nile–positive mosquito pools most summers, and human cases occur in most years. Austin Public Health publishes positive pools by ZIP code; when one is active near you, treat dusk and dawn as high-risk hours regardless of the Bite Index.
Where does this forecast's data come from?
Weather comes from Open-Meteo (temperature, rain, humidity, wind, observed and forecast). The scoring is our own, documented below, and calibrated against the same climate-and-sightings index behind our national mosquito season map. It is a model, not a mosquito count.

Also covers Round Rock, Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Georgetown, San Marcos, Lake Travis, Barton Springs, Zilker Park: the forecast point is central Austin, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 12:38 PM local time.

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