Mosquito forecast
Albuquerque Mosquito Forecast
Today's mosquito activity in Albuquerque, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Updated hourly.Today's mosquito activity in Albuquerque on a 0–100 Bite Index, the week ahead, and what to do about it. Built from the rain and temperature that drive Bernalillo County's trap counts; updated hourly.
Bite Index · Sunday, November 8
Low
Mosquito activity in Albuquerque is low today.
Few mosquitoes. You may see one or two at dusk near water.
About normal for November in Bernalillo County (typically around 0).
- Off-season: even with rain and warmth, populations are a fraction of summer's.
- Only 0.2 in. of rain Oct 17–Oct 28, so few new breeding sites; what's biting is coming from irrigation, pools and creeks.
- At a two-week average of 54°F, larvae develop slowly and the population stays small whatever the rain.
The week ahead
Each day's Bite Index, from this week's weather and the rain that is still hatching. Forecast days get less certain as the week goes on.
- Today0LowLow65°/38°dry
- Mon0LowLow65°/36°dry
- Tue0LowLow67°/39°dry
- Wed0LowLow65°/52°dry
- Thu0LowLow65°/52°dry
- Fri0LowLow64°/53°dry
- Sat0LowLow64°/52°dry
Protect tonight
You can probably skip repellent tonight.
- If you're near a creek, pond or heavy shade at dusk, a light application on ankles and arms is plenty.
- Good night to tip out any containers holding water; what you empty now won't hatch next week.
Why Albuquerque's mosquitoes do what they do
Albuquerque is high desert on the Rio Grande, and nearly all of its mosquitoes come from the river: the cottonwood bosque, the irrigation ditches and the drains of the valley neighborhoods. The city's Urban Biology division traps and larvicides along the river and announces the first West Nile detection each summer; the aggressive, daytime-biting Aedes aegypti has also arrived in recent years.
- The bosque: the Rio Grande's cottonwood forest and its ditches are the city's breeding habitat.
- Acequias and irrigation: the valley's ditch network and flood-irrigated fields breed Culex tarsalis.
- Monsoon: July–August storms add rain and humidity; the surge follows ten days later.
- Dry heat and altitude: outside the valley and the monsoon, the index stays low.
A typical year in Bernalillo County
What the Bite Index typically reads here each month, from Bernalillo County's 30-year climate normals run through the same model as today's number. The month you're in is marked; the season map shows the same long-run picture for every county.
- JJanuary: 0
- FFebruary: 0
- MMarch: 0
- AApril: 0
- MMay: 6
- JJune: 23
- JJuly: 45
- AAugust: 56
- SSeptember: 35
- OOctober: 4
- NNovember: 0
- DDecember: 0
Local surveillance and West Nile virus
The Bite Index measures nuisance biting, not disease. Bernalillo County's health department traps and tests mosquitoes through the season and publishes positive West Nile pools by ZIP code. When your ZIP has an active advisory, follow it regardless of today's number.
- City of Albuquerque Environmental Health — Mosquitoes
Urban Biology's trapping along the Rio Grande bosque and across the city, West Nile testing, larviciding and the first-detection announcements each summer.
How the Bite Index is scored
The index is a model of conditions, not a mosquito count. Warmth and water set the size of the population, tonight's weather sets how much of it flies, and the season and local reports adjust the result. Every factor and today's value for it is listed here so you can check the number yourself. Warmth and Water are exactly the climate core of our county-level mosquito season map; the map shows that core on 30-year normals for every county, and “typical for this month” is the same model run on this county's normals, so the comparison is like for like.
WWater
Rain over the egg-to-adult window (0.2 in. between Oct 17 and Oct 28), expressed as a monthly rate on the same wetness curve the season map uses. At summer temperatures eggs become biting adults in about a week, so today's mosquitoes are last week's rain. Cool weather stretches the window; hot dry days shrink it. Irrigation, creeks and pools keep a 35% floor even in a drought.
TWarmth
The trailing two-week average temperature on the season map's curve: nothing below 50°F, full speed at 78–88°F, a small penalty in extreme heat. Multiplied with Water, so a cool fortnight caps the index however wet it has been.
ATonight
Whether the population that exists will actually fly and bite this evening: dusk temperature (65–85°F is ideal), wind (they stop flying around 10 mph), humidity, and rain around sunset. Scales the index between half and full.
GGround truth
A nudge from local trap counts and reports when we have them. For Albuquerque this is neutral today; the health department's surveillance is linked above and will feed this factor as we wire it in.
SSeason gate
A multiplier from the calendar: fully open in the city's season months, half-open in the shoulder months, nearly closed in deep winter unless the week is warm. Below a 50°F weekly average the index is simply 0.
index = 100 × S × [T × (0.35 + 0.65·W)] × (0.5 + 0.5·A) × (1 + 0.15·G)
Bands: Low 0–20 · Moderate 21–40 · High 41–60 · Very High 61–80 · Severe 81–100. Weather is from Open-Meteo (observations and the 7-day forecast), refreshed hourly. The lag and temperature thresholds follow published work on Culex and Aedes development (Rueda et al. 1990; Cornell NRCC degree-day emergence; JAMCA 2024 on rainfall two to four weeks before trap peaks).
Questions people ask about mosquitoes in Albuquerque
- When is mosquito season in Albuquerque?
- June through September, peaking with the monsoon in July and August. Nights cool quickly in September and the season ends with October frost.
- Why are the valley neighborhoods so much worse?
- They sit next to the bosque and the acequia network, where almost all of the city's mosquitoes breed. The Heights, a few hundred feet up and away from the river, run well below the citywide index.
- Is West Nile virus a risk in Albuquerque?
- Yes. Bernalillo County detects West Nile in mosquitoes most summers and records human cases in many years. The city's announcements are authoritative; follow them over the index.
- Where does this forecast's data come from?
- Open-Meteo weather for downtown Albuquerque, scored by our documented model with desert humidity and heat terms. Irrigation and river levels aren't in the weather data.
Also covers Rio Rancho, Corrales, Los Ranchos, Bernalillo, the North Valley, the South Valley, the Bosque Trail, Tingley Beach: the forecast point is central Albuquerque, and conditions within about 30 miles track it closely. Weather fetched Nov 8, 3:28 PM local time.